Because I have so much free time (that's sarcasm for those of unfamiliar with the concept), I have started another blog. I keep a journal at home of all the books I read, the date I finished them, and I attempt to give them some sort of rating. I'd like to be able to put that online, but this particular blog isn't really an appropriate place for that. So, I've started a different blog called "Frittering and Wasting." To the extent anyone cares, they can see what I do to kill time until I die. For example, the books I read. The music I listen to. The concerts I go to. The movies I watch. You'll notice there are no comments allowed there; it's really just an online place that I'm going to put stuff for myself that I'm interested in remembering (because I have a crappy memory), but that others can read if they choose. I thought about starting a MySpace thing for it, but I don't really like their format, so I chose an open-source project called "Live Journal" instead.
I think it'll make an interesting experiment. Over time, it could make an interesting self-referential guide to my own private culture. I mean, it'll be interesting to see if the music and movies I hear and see are influenced by the books I read, or vice versa. Anyway. You can find it here.
Monday, January 23, 2006
Thursday, January 12, 2006
Math
Some interesting (relatively) new technology advances in recent months (or years) have re-defined how people watch, listen to, and want content. It's an a la carte world, baby. The long-play record is dead (that's an 'LP' for you young whippersnappers who never knew what "LP" stood for), as are (so say the pundits) cds, tapes, broadcast television, hell even cable television. The new world is going to be "content on demad" for those of us who want our content the way and when we like it. I don't want to wait until Tuesday nights at 8pm to watch Scrubs, goddammit; it's 2pm on holiday Monday afternoon and I have 4 hours to kill. I want to catch up on all the episodes from this season that I haven't been able to watch because Scrubs runs while my yoga class is going on, and I want to do it all at once right now. Please. Here are my options (more or less): I can wait for a year or so and wait for the shows to come out on DVD; I can wait until my Tuesday night schedule clears up and try to catch them in re-runs; I can pay $37,000 per month for cable so I have access to NBC On-Demand (does this truly exist yet??); or I can head on over to iTunes (though it isn't a "tune" so that really makes about as much sense as shutting down my computer through the "start" button, eh? The Apple apologists will let that one slide though because "everyone knows" what's at iTunes, so a silly misnomer isn't going to kill anyone) and buy each of the videos for $1.99 and watch them on my computer that I've rigged through my TV.
Here's some realistic numbers assuming I've missed 8 shows this year. At iTunes, the math is easy (we'll round up to $2 for ease of computation, those of you who demand accuracy can subtract $.08 at the end in your head); the 8 shows cost me $16. Let's pretend an entire season runs 16 shows, I can purchase the entire season for $32. Or, if I wait a year I can purchase the entire season on 6 DVDs for $45. Or, if I want NBC on-demand (assuming such a beast exists), I can subscribe to basic cable ($11), plus extended digital cable ($50), plus the movie channels ($75, in case you haven't figured it out this is a running total, not the amount added to the prior number), plus the on-demand package ($100) - per month - or $1200 per year. Let's say I really only care about 10 shows (that's being very generous by the way); at a going rate of $2 per show, and $32 for a season, I should be willing to spend $320 per year to watch all of the shows I truly care about. That leaves about $900 more for miscellaneous shows. At $2 per show, that's 450 individual shows, or about 28 other shows that I can pay for for an entire season.
If I have a DVD burner I can burn my downloads to DVD and watch them on my DVD player. More likely I'll save some of the extra $900 because it now seems silly to subscribe to cable at all and buy some extra hard-drive space and just keep the computer attached to the TV.
Now, what I presume will happen is this: in the next few years the media companies (ABC, NBC, CBS, FOX, etc.) will release shows to iTunes (or whatever) about 1 week after they air on TV. They will only keep them up for a limited time; access to the archives will cost more. We'll also start to see shows that only run on download. But we'll also see PBS get into this game; why? because right now PBS offers their shows for free - if they can get people to pay for them why wouldn't they?? But PBS will likely set their price point at $1 per show (it's a tax-deductible donation, by the way!). Eventually, advertisers will get pissed because no one will watch regular tv any more, so advertisers will start paying the channels to put commercials into the downloads. Someone will invent a technology to skip the commercials (or strip them out).
Anyway, as usual this has gotten afield from what I started as the point of this post: the math isn't nearly as bad as I expected. In fact, $2 per download seems pretty reasonable given current pricing mechanisms. What will ruin iVideo is not the price-point. What will ruin iVideo is the insistence by the content providers of 'locking' the shows with pointless DRM (it will only be hacked within a week of releasing it anyway) so that people can't watch it on whatever display device they choose. Apple will sell video that can only be watched on a video iPod. Sony will only sell video that can be watched on a PSP. Microsoft will only sell video that can be watched using a Windows based device. Etc. Etc. Etc. And content will be exclusive. So, if you want to download both MLB and NFL games you will need both an iPod and a PSP. And who wants to do that?? I want one device that will play everything; pick a format, I don't really care which one, and everyone use that. Or, use your own format, I don't care; but make sure everything available for one is available for all - or at least have conversion software that works "on the fly." But the exclusivity crap is what will kill this technology before it ever gets started.
Why the hell can't I ever seem to stay on topic??
Here's some realistic numbers assuming I've missed 8 shows this year. At iTunes, the math is easy (we'll round up to $2 for ease of computation, those of you who demand accuracy can subtract $.08 at the end in your head); the 8 shows cost me $16. Let's pretend an entire season runs 16 shows, I can purchase the entire season for $32. Or, if I wait a year I can purchase the entire season on 6 DVDs for $45. Or, if I want NBC on-demand (assuming such a beast exists), I can subscribe to basic cable ($11), plus extended digital cable ($50), plus the movie channels ($75, in case you haven't figured it out this is a running total, not the amount added to the prior number), plus the on-demand package ($100) - per month - or $1200 per year. Let's say I really only care about 10 shows (that's being very generous by the way); at a going rate of $2 per show, and $32 for a season, I should be willing to spend $320 per year to watch all of the shows I truly care about. That leaves about $900 more for miscellaneous shows. At $2 per show, that's 450 individual shows, or about 28 other shows that I can pay for for an entire season.
If I have a DVD burner I can burn my downloads to DVD and watch them on my DVD player. More likely I'll save some of the extra $900 because it now seems silly to subscribe to cable at all and buy some extra hard-drive space and just keep the computer attached to the TV.
Now, what I presume will happen is this: in the next few years the media companies (ABC, NBC, CBS, FOX, etc.) will release shows to iTunes (or whatever) about 1 week after they air on TV. They will only keep them up for a limited time; access to the archives will cost more. We'll also start to see shows that only run on download. But we'll also see PBS get into this game; why? because right now PBS offers their shows for free - if they can get people to pay for them why wouldn't they?? But PBS will likely set their price point at $1 per show (it's a tax-deductible donation, by the way!). Eventually, advertisers will get pissed because no one will watch regular tv any more, so advertisers will start paying the channels to put commercials into the downloads. Someone will invent a technology to skip the commercials (or strip them out).
Anyway, as usual this has gotten afield from what I started as the point of this post: the math isn't nearly as bad as I expected. In fact, $2 per download seems pretty reasonable given current pricing mechanisms. What will ruin iVideo is not the price-point. What will ruin iVideo is the insistence by the content providers of 'locking' the shows with pointless DRM (it will only be hacked within a week of releasing it anyway) so that people can't watch it on whatever display device they choose. Apple will sell video that can only be watched on a video iPod. Sony will only sell video that can be watched on a PSP. Microsoft will only sell video that can be watched using a Windows based device. Etc. Etc. Etc. And content will be exclusive. So, if you want to download both MLB and NFL games you will need both an iPod and a PSP. And who wants to do that?? I want one device that will play everything; pick a format, I don't really care which one, and everyone use that. Or, use your own format, I don't care; but make sure everything available for one is available for all - or at least have conversion software that works "on the fly." But the exclusivity crap is what will kill this technology before it ever gets started.
Why the hell can't I ever seem to stay on topic??
Wednesday, January 11, 2006
Miscellaneous Stuff Found Around The Intertron
A conspiracy theory on Chappelle's Show.
One of the most bizarre cartoons ever made.
A fifteen year-old with "impeccable" taste in music.
A lot of games to play on-line.
A(n) hilarious op-ed piece in the NYTimes about a million little lies.
Cingular doesn't have very good customer service.
Blockbuster is waiting to die.
I'm sure there's others. I'll add to this post as I see them.
Edited to add: The funniest blonde joke ever.
One of the most bizarre cartoons ever made.
A fifteen year-old with "impeccable" taste in music.
A lot of games to play on-line.
A(n) hilarious op-ed piece in the NYTimes about a million little lies.
Cingular doesn't have very good customer service.
Blockbuster is waiting to die.
I'm sure there's others. I'll add to this post as I see them.
Edited to add: The funniest blonde joke ever.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)